There’s been so much discussion recently (which was lead by Dayani here and I’ve been trying to contribute to) in the theorycraft community about how Chain Heal works and how it will affect High Tide. One of the problems that the theorycraft has run into so far is expressing exactly how the random selection process affects the average of Chain Heal’s healing. I suggested previously that a specific kind of distribution might help, and later showed that the this distribution provides a good estimate of real (simulated) Chain Heal and High Tide interaction. In addition, I’ve been talking at length about why we should be caring about statistical ideas in Warlords of Draenor – especially because it will evidently inform our understanding of the value of Stats.

We know that this distribution – known as the “Hypergeometric” distribution – gives a good description of how High Tide interacts with Riptides and Chain Heal, in both imaginary and “realistic” situations, and for any number of applied Riptides upon the raid. It’s pretty damn useful, so it’s fairly clear that we should be using it.

However, so far I haven’t actually explained (successfully) what this distribution is and how to use it! This post is dedicated to explaining (in part) what the Hypergeometric distribution does and *how to actually use the thing*. I think that this is important to getting it more widely used in the community.